A large asteroid hitting the moon in 2032, which astronomers estimate has a 4.3% chance of occurring, could damage satellites and cause spectacular but harmless meteor showers on Earth, according to researchers. Asteroid 2024 YR4 briefly gained attention earlier this year when space agencies announced they were monitoring the 60-meter-wide asteroid for a possible impact with Earth in 2032. New observations have since ruled out the possibility of a direct impact with Earth. But the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting the moon have increased to 4.3 percent, according to data collected by the James Webb Space Telescope in May. A preliminary study, published on the ArXiv pre-print platform and submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letters, assesses for the first time the potential consequences of such a collision. 2024 YR4 would be the largest asteroid to hit the natural satellite in about 5,000 years, Paul Wiegert of the University of Western Ontario in Canada, lead author of the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, told AFP. The impact “would be comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy it would release,” he explained. According to a series of simulations conducted by the researchers, up to 100 million kilograms of material would be ejected from the lunar surface. If the asteroid hits the near side of the moon, which has a probability of about 50 percent, Earth’s gravity It will attract up to 10% of this debris. In the days following the impact, there could be more than 1,000 times the usual number of meteoroids threatening satellites orbiting Earth. Wiegert spoke of what he described as “a one-centimeter-wide rock moving at tens of thousands of meters per second, like a bullet.” However, these small pieces of debris should disintegrate in the atmosphere and pose no danger to humans on Earth, who will nevertheless witness a “spectacular” meteor shower, according to the study. After being monitored for months, 2024 YR4 will move noticeably further away from Earth until its return in 2028, when its trajectory will be observable again. If the risk of a collision with the moon increases by then, it would be a “good target” for a planetary defense exercise, according to Wiegert, who said, “I’m sure it will be considered.” In fact, 2024 YR4 is half the size of Dimorphos, and its mass is Only 10% of the mass of this asteroid was deliberately collided with by a NASA spacecraft in 2022 to change its trajectory during the first successful planetary defense test.
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