Israel makes no secret of its desire to overthrow the Velayat-e Faqih regime that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, its gamble is risky given the divisions within the Iranian opposition and the lack of guarantees that the new government will be less restrictive, according to a report by Lin.
After targeting sites that were not nuclear or ballistic missile facilities, such as the Iranian Broadcasting Corporation, speculation has increased regarding Israel's actual goals, which go beyond undermining Iran's nuclear and ballistic capabilities to include the overthrow of the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
While US President Donald Trump has said that "we know" where Khamenei is "hiding," the consequences of overthrowing the Supreme Leader after more than three and a half decades of rule are fraught with danger and uncertainty.
European leaders are not oblivious to the repercussions of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the NATO military intervention in Libya in 2011.
The regimes of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi fell, but the demise of the dictatorships left behind years of bloody unrest in both countries.
French President Emmanuel Macron said at the conclusion of the G7 summit in Canada, "The biggest mistake today is to seek regime change in Iran by military means, because that would lead to chaos."
He added, "Does anyone think that what happened in Iraq in 2003... or what happened in Libya over the past decade was a good idea? No!"
Experts point out that the overthrow of Khamenei and his entourage could create a vacuum that could be filled by hardline elements from the Revolutionary Guard or the armed forces.
Nicole Grayevsky of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said, "The Israeli strikes seem to be more focused on regime change than on eliminating" nuclear weapons.
In statements to Agence France-Presse, she revealed, "There is no doubt that Israel is targeting facilities related to ballistic missiles and military capabilities, but it is also targeting the leadership and symbols of the regime, such as the IRIB."
She noted that "if the regime falls, hopes are pinned on a liberal and democratic government," but "it is highly likely that other influential entities, such as the Revolutionary Guard, will emerge."
Among the most prominent opposition figures is Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah of Iran, who resides in the United States.
He declared that the Islamic Republic is "on the verge of collapse," accusing Khamenei of "hiding underground" like a "terrified rat."
Pahlavi has long called for restoring the close relationship with Israel that existed under his father, to counter the Islamic Republic's refusal to recognize the Jewish state.
Supporters of the Shah's regime call for such a rapprochement, which they call the "Cyrus Accords," after Cyrus, one of the greatest Persian kings who liberated the Jews from the Babylonian Empire.
However, Pahlavi does not enjoy unanimous support, whether inside or outside Iran.
His positions and relationship with Israel are a source of division, particularly following his refusal to condemn the Israeli strikes on Iran.
Another major organization is the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), whose leader, Maryam Rajavi, told the European Parliament on Wednesday that "the people of Iran want the fall of this regime."
However, the MEK is not well-respected by other opposition factions and is viewed with suspicion by some Iranians due to its support for Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq War.
Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa, noted that "part of the challenge of finding an alternative to the Islamic Republic in the event of its fall lies in the absence of any organized, democratic alternative."
He acknowledged that Reza Pahlavi is the opposition leader "with the greatest public profile, both inside and outside Iran," but that his supporters "tend to inflate his support within the country."
Junod pointed out that "the only alternative, and unfortunately a worrying scenario, is a coup by the Revolutionary Guards or a transition from a theocracy to a military dictatorship."
Experts warn of an often overlooked factor that could increase future instability in the country: Iran's complex ethnic makeup, where large minorities of Kurds, Arabs, Baluchis, and Turks coexist with the Persian majority.
Nicole Grayevsky warned that "hostile states could exploit ethnic divisions."
Mahal Lone of the Soufan Center, a think tank in the United States, warned of a scenario similar to that in Iraq looming in Iran, given that the survival of the current regime is considered a "strategic failure."
They said, "It is still difficult to predict what might happen after a regime change, but the change could lead to regional unrest on a scale wider than Iraq, with global repercussions."
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