The United Nations warned on Wednesday that the likelihood of global warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius between 2025 and 2029 is now 70%.
The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years in 2023 and 2024, according to the UN World Meteorological Organization.
"We have just experienced the ten hottest years on record. Unfortunately, the WMO report shows no signs of abating in the coming years. This means an increasingly negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems, and our planet," said Ko Barrett, WMO Assistant Secretary-General.
The 2015 Paris Climate Agreements aim to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial temperatures, with a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.
The targets are calculated based on the average temperature recorded between 1850 and 1900, before humans began burning coal, gas, and oil in industrial quantities, which release carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change.
A growing number of climate scientists now believe that limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C is impossible to achieve, given the increasing carbon dioxide emissions.
The World Meteorological Organization's forecasts were prepared by the UK Met Office based on projections from several global centers.
The organization predicts that the global average near-surface temperature for each year from 2025 to 2029 will be between 1.2 and 1.9°C above the pre-industrial average.
It states that there is a 70% chance of warming exceeding 1.5°C between 2025 and 2029.
"This is very consistent with us approaching the 1.5°C threshold in the long term in the late 2020s or early 2030s," commented climate expert Peter Thorne of Minot University in Ireland.
He added, "I expect the probability to rise to 100% within two to three years" within the five-year projection.
The World Meteorological Organization has estimated an 80% probability that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be hotter than the previous record year (2024).
Christopher Hewitt, Director of the World Meteorological Organization's Climate Services Division, stated at a press conference that to mitigate natural climate variability, several methods are used to assess long-term warming.
One approach combines data from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade.
Based on this, the projection indicates that the average warming for the 20-year period from 2015 to 2034 will be 1.44°C.
There is still no consensus on the best way to assess long-term warming.
The European Copernicus Observatory estimates that warming is currently 1.39 degrees Celsius and expects the world to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius by mid-2029 or even earlier.
Although the probability of a 2-degree increase is still very low (1%), the mere fact that it appears in computer forecasts for at least one of the next five years means it should be taken seriously.
"This is the first time we've ever seen this in our computer forecasts," said Adam Scaife of the British Meteorological Office.
He added that "it's shocking" and "we expect this probability to increase."
He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts initially showed a very low probability of any year exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold. But that happened in 2024.
Every fraction of a degree of additional warming will increase the severity of heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers.
This year doesn't look like it will see any improvement.
Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in some areas, while the United Arab Emirates recorded nearly 52 degrees Celsius. Strong winds battered Pakistan, leaving several people dead after a severe heatwave.
"We have already reached a dangerous level of warming, with recent deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China, and Ghana, and wildfires in Canada," said Frédérique Otto, a climate expert at Imperial College London.
"Relying on oil, gas, and coal in 2025 is absolute madness," she added.
The Arctic is expected to continue warming at an above-average rate over the next five years, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Sea ice is expected to continue to retreat from March 2025 to 2029 in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
South Asia is also expected to experience above-average rainfall over the next five years.
Rainfall patterns indicate that the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia will all experience increased rainfall, while conditions will be drier than normal in the Amazon.
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